April 1, 1993
MEMORANDUM
FROM:  PHB
SUBJECT:  PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF CDC'S "FIREARM 
          MORTALITY AMONG CHILDREN, YOUTH, AND YOUNG 
          ADULTS 1-34 YEARS OF AGE, TRENDS AND CURRENT 
          STATUS:  UNITED STATES, 1985-1990

1.  In order to deemphasize the fact that the issues are increases in
suicide (particularly among young non-Hispanic white males) and
homicide (particularly among black and Hispanic males), the CDC
ignores the World Health Organization's International Classification
of Diseases in favor of defining deaths in terms of firearm-
relatedness.  As with the earlier study, discussions in terms of
"children" are limited by the exclusion of persons under the age of
one, who account for roughly three-fifths of the deaths of "children"
under 20, and 70% of children under 15.

2.  The study is similar to one published in 1991 -- the lead author
of the earlier study is the sole author of this one, long-time gun-ban
supporter Lois Fingerhut -- but limited to 1985-1990, since the
1980-1985 data would have shown a dramatic decrease during the first
half of the '80s.  (Or, as she worded it, the earlier time frame was
ignored because "it was during the second half of the decade that
firearm mortality increased for the younger population.")  The
dramatic recent increase is largely limited to a small segment in
society -- already least apt to own guns and most restricted from
lawful access by federal and state law: young black and (for the past
year or two) Hispanic males.  (The study makes reference to a dramatic
recent increase among whites, but that figure included Hispanics, and
there is no breakdown in the study for non- Hispanic whites; Fingerhut
has admitted to the press that she expects much of the increase for
whites was among Hispanics.)

3.  Increases and decreases may best be explained by something which
has changed.  Gun availability by household hasn't changed in four
decades; handgun ownership by household hasn't changed in over 15
years.  Among things which have changed is that more young black males
are incarcerated than in college; the two-parent family is
disappearing, as are educational and economic hopes for the future,
etc.

4.  There has been an increase in suicide among young white males, but
that is reflective of a problem among European and European-heritage
young males -- the British young male suicide rate has risen 73%
during the 1980s, while our only rose about 20%.  (Or, using the CDC's
1985-90 data, our young white male suicide rate rose roughly 7% for a
half-decade while it was rising over 70% for a full decade in
Britain.)

5.  Firearm-related deaths exceed deaths from natural causes among
teenagers and young adults partly because once persons have passed the
childhood- disease stage and not yet entered the ailments associated
with aging, there should be very little death from natural causes; it
would be expected to be accidents (esp. motor vehicles), suicides, and
homicides.  Since accidents are down (overall, motor vehicle, and
firearm), that leaves the two problems which the CDC prefers to
address as one.

6.  The Brady bill addresses dealer sales of handguns to person 21 and
over, and the increases in homicide among persons 15-19 or 10-19 are
hardly relevant.  There is a crime problem which will increase so long
as gimmickry is used.

7.  By limiting their data to those over 1 and under 35, the CDC
disguises the fact that firearm-related deaths are down for much of
the population.  The study shows data showing a small decline for
those 1-9.  Similar declines occur across the board among those over
34, for whom gun ownership levels are higher than among those under
35.

8.  Interestingly, almost all of the dramatic increase in firearm-
related deaths among young persons has occurred since 1987 when the
CDC received from Congress the task of reducing firearm-related deaths
among young persons.